Methods
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
The LEIP staff has developed a seasonality index for Jacksonville MSA unemployment that is easily updated as new unemployment rates become available. The procedure employs a ratio to trend analysis based on data from January 1985 through December 2001 to produce monthly seasonality index numbers. This procedure allows for seasonality adjustments to the data reported by Workforce Innovation (the reporting agency for local Florida unemployment rates) making the unemployment rates more effectively comparable over time and relative to unemployment rates at the national level.
Jacksonville Stock Price Index Numbers
Every day the Florida Times-Union publishes stock prices for companies of local interest. This includes both companies with a substantial presence in Jacksonville and those based here. Using a Fisher Ideal Index procedure, we provide a stock price index for all of those companies, and a separate index for just those based in Jacksonville. The Fisher ideal procedure generates the most valid quantity weighting procedure to identify not just what is happening to the prices of local stocks, but also their volumes. Through this procedure, local investors can keep track of how local companies are doing, and we can infer an important component of our Index of Leading Indicators.
Jacksonville Index of Leading Indicators
Several of the major cities in the United States have locally developed indices of leading economic indicators. Following the model developed by the University of San Diego, we developed an Index of Leading Indicators(LEI) for Jacksonville. This methodology employs both local and national data to predict economic conditions three to six months in advance. We employ the Conference Board (national provider) methodology employing the national weighting procedures for each category. In all there are eleven categories with the national components being new orders for consumer goods, new orders for capital goods, consumer confidence, average work week hours, the money supply, and the percentage of late deliveries. The local components are help wanted advertising, building permits, new applications for unemployment insurance, interest rate spreads, and the local stock price index.
Consumer Price Index for Jacksonville
Probably the most globally useful data we provide involves a local Consumer Price Index. Based on monthly surveys of local stores, businesses, and government agencies we developed a cost of living index from which Jacksonville's citizenry can make pricing and wage decisions. Our index employs national CPI percentages for multiple categories and 200 products or product categories to estimate percentage changes in prices on a monthly and annual basis. These data follow strictly the procedure implemented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the group that produces the national CPI data each month.